Fire LorraineTier 1
at 台灣 中部地區 Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.1% | +13.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 58.5% | +5.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 6.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.8% | +16.1 |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.3% | -8.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Wind Beast | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.6% | -5.6 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 11 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 11 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |